Scottish Open Best Bets and Golf Odds (2024)

Genesis Scottish Open:

Former World No. 1 Amateur Davis Thompson had been a runner-up three times, including twice in his last six starts, on the PGA Tour but earned his first victory on Sunday, setting the all-time scoring record at the John Deere Classic at 28 under par (Michael Kim shot -27 in 2017) and nabbing a winner for this column at 25-1.

Thompson had the 54-hole lead going into Sunday’s final round and was around even money (+100) to win his first PGA Tour event. Those odds increased immediately as the 25-year-old shot 29 on the front nine while making more than 100 feet of putts. While Sunday was his best putting day, Thompson ranked fifth for the week for Strokes Gained: Putting and led the field for Scrambling (18-for-20 up and downs; 90%).

Along with C.T. Pan, who tied for second four shots back at 24 under, Thompson earned the two available spots for the British Open at Royal Troon in two weeks.

Also finishing in a tie for second were newly turned professional Michael Thorbjornsen, who earned his PGA Tour card finishing atop the PGA Tour U rankings (like Ludvig Åberg last year) and Luke Clanton, who plays at Florida State and became the first amateur to finish in the top 10 in back-to-back PGA Tour starts since 1958.

Rounding out the top 10 were Ben Griffin and Carson Young at T-5 and Denny McCarthy, Eric Cole, Aaron Rai, Hayden Springer and Andrew Novak finishing T-7.

This week, the PGA Tour has a co-sanctioned event with the DP World Tour in North Berwick, Scotland for the Genesis Scottish Open.

The defending champion is Rory McIlroy (+650), who returns to play for the first time since his late collapse at U.S. Open last month. Last year, McIlroy won the Scottish Open courtesy of hitting a 2-iron into the wind to 11 feet and a made birdie on No. 18. McIlroy birdied the final two holes to finish one shot better than runner-up Robert MacIntyre (45-1). Next week is Rory’s 10th anniversary of winning the Claret Jug at the British Open (Royal Liverpool).

Reigning PGA Champion Xander Schauffele (8-1) was the 2022 Scottish Open winner.

Collin Morikawa (14-1) has five top-5 finishes this season, including three in his last five events.

Åberg (16-1) missed the cut here last year playing the event for the first time but has since finished runner-up in the Masters and held the lead at the U.S. Open on the weekend before finishing T-12.

Tommy Fleetwood (20-1) lost a playoff in the 2020 Scottish Open to Aaron Rai (50-1), who won this when the Scottish was exclusively a DP World Tour event, and is still inching closer to his maiden PGA Tour victory.

Following on the odds board are Viktor Hovland (22-1) and Tom Kim (25-1), who has finished third (2022) and sixth (2023) here in two appearances.

Min Woo Lee (28-1) outlasted Matt Fitzpatrick (35-1) and Thomas Detry (80-1) in a playoff to win the 2021 Scottish Open.

The Field

18 of the OWGR Top 30 are in this week’s field at the Genesis Scottish Open.

The 156-player is divided evenly among the PGA Tour and DP World Tour.

Three British Open spots remain for the top three finishers not already qualified for Royal Troon, but only if they finish in the top 10.

See this week’s field here.

Current DraftKings odds.

The Course

The Renaissance Golf Club plays host for a fourth consecutive year and is scheduled to host through 2026. The course is in Dirleton, North Berwick, Scotland, which is about 20 miles east of the capital city of Edinburgh. Renaissance was designed in 2008 by American Tom Doak and the course is located next to Muirfield, which is part of the British Open rotation. It is a modern links course that is going to play at 7,237 yards for the par-70.

Renaissance is not a pure classic links course; instead it is more of a hybrid of a parklands, heathlands and links course.

The links-like qualities here include 83 pot bunkers, zero water holes and extremely firm turf.

The course agronomy is Fescue throughout including the large, 7,000 square-foot greens, which will roll at a slow 10 on the stimpmeter. The rough is also a little thicker than most links-style or pure links courses that you will find in the U.K.

Here is the official scorecard for this week’s Genesis Scottish Open courtesy of PGATOUR.com:

Scottish Open Best Bets and Golf Odds (1)

Golf Digest provides a hole-by-hole flyover of Renaissance Golf Club.

Genesis Scottish Open Recent History

The Genesis Scottish Open was moved to Renaissance in 2019 and is scheduled to be held here through 2026.

2023: Rory McIlroy (-15/265); 8-1

2022: Xander Schauffele (-7/273); 18-1

2021: Min Woo Lee (-18/266); 100-1*

2020: Aaron Rai (-11/273); 50-1**

2019: Bernd Wiesberger (-22/262); 40-1***

Playoff win over Matt Fitzpatrick and Thomas Detry – *

Playoff win over Tommy Fleetwood; event Held in October – **

Playoff win over Benjamin Hebert – ***

The 2020 and 2022 events were affected by high winds of 20-35 mph. Weather will be the ultimate factor in determining how this course will play this week. Initial forecasts indicate winds over the four days ranging from 9-13 mph, temperatures in the mid to high 50s and scattered showers on Thursday and Saturday.

Trends and Angles

  • Three of the last five winners finished at least second or better in their previous starts. (2023: Rory McIlroy, T-7 Travelers Championship; 2022: Xander Schauffele, win Travelers Championship; 2021: Min Woo Lee, T-17 Irish Open; 2020: Aaron Rai, second Irish Open; 2019: Bernd Wiesberger, T-2 Irish Open).
  • In-play betting after Round 1 looks ideal here considering only one of the last five event champions has been inside the top 20 after Round 1.

Statistical Analysis

Although the greens are large at Renaissance, approach is still vital to success because of potential windy conditions and for players to place their second shots in the proper spots to leave uphill putts. Last year, six of the top seven on the leaderboard gained at least 2.3 strokes on approach.

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour leaders)

  1. Tom Hoge 0.944 (65 Total rounds)
  2. Corey Conners 0.854 (62)
  3. Xander Schauffele 0.754 (49)
  4. Keith Mitchell 0.731 (53)
  5. Aaron Rai 0.696 (55)
  6. Justin Thomas 0.606 (40)
  7. Ludvig Åberg 0.587 (47)
  8. Doug Ghim 0.573 (46)
  9. Kevin Yu 0.566 (45)
  10. Lucas Glover 0.564 (58)
  11. Si Woo Kim 0.540 (60)
  12. Austin Eckroat 0.468 (55)

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2024 DP World Tour leaders)

  1. Tommy Fleetwood 1.45 (8 Total rounds)
  2. Nicolai Højgaard 1.42 (8)
  3. Sebastian Söderberg 1.24 (43)
  4. Dan Bradbury 1.20 (43)
  5. Antoine Rozner 1.14 (47)
  6. Rory McIlroy 1.08 (8)
  7. Nacho Elvira 0.96 (45)
  8. Matthieu Pavon 0.90 (10)
  9. Rikuya Hoshino 0.86 (44)
  10. Ewen Ferguson 0.86 (54)
  11. Matteo Manassero 0.85 (57)
  12. Darius Van Driel 0.85 (52)

Last year at Renaissance, the average driving distance was 295 yards. Bigger hitters have the advantage here with not as much rollout in the fairways as you see on most links courses.

Driving Distance (2024 PGA Tour rankings)

  1. Rory McIlroy 318.9
  2. Min Woo Lee 314.5
  3. Byeong Hun An 314.1
  4. Wyndham Clark 313.3
  5. Chris Gotterup 312.8
  6. Gary Woodland 312.3
  7. Vincent Norrman 311.1
  8. Kevin Yu 310.2
  9. Keith Mitchell 309.7
  10. Ryan Fox 309.4
  11. Max Greyserman 309.4
  12. Nicolai Højgaard 309.3

Driving Distance (2024 DP World Tour rankings)

  1. Rory McIlroy 328.3
  2. Niklas Norgaard 322.5
  3. Jesper Svensson 322.4
  4. Nicolai Højgaard 317.0
  5. Louis de Jager 312.9
  6. Daniel Hillier 312.1
  7. Ugo Coussaud 311.7
  8. Ryan Fox 310.8
  9. Ryo Hisatsune 309.6
  10. Rasmus Højgaard 309.5
  11. Haotong Li 309.1
  12. Matthew Jordan 308.5

Gaining strokes around the green is weather-dependent here. The average scrambling rate was 61% last year, but only 53% in harder weather conditions in 2022. Wind can knock shots off these greens and into the deep pot bunkers and force chip shots from tighter lies nearby.

Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour rankings)

  1. Hideki Matsuyama 0.798 (49)
  2. Justin Thomas 0.474 (40)
  3. Davis Thompson 0.439 (57)
  4. Jorge Campillo 0.402 (34)
  5. Alex Noren 0.395 (48)
  6. Collin Morikawa 0.390 (49)
  7. Denny McCarthy 0.375 (62)
  8. Brendon Todd 0.321 (66)
  9. Mackenzie Hughes 0.306 (57)
  10. Matt Wallace 0.279 (45)
  11. Tommy Fleetwood 0.277 (48)
  12. Max Homa 0.271 (51)

Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Average Per Round (2024 DP World Tour rankings)

  1. Tommy Fleetwood 0.83 (8)
  2. Rory McIlroy 0.73 (8)
  3. Thorbjørn Olesen 0.64 (12)
  4. Adrian Otaegui 0.53 (59)
  5. Matteo Manassero 0.53 (56)
  6. Keita Nakajima 0.48 (31)
  7. Ugo Coussaud 0.47 (62)
  8. Adri Arnaus 0.45 (46)
  9. Yuto Katsuragawa 0.42 (10)
  10. Scott Jamieson 0.40 (53)
  11. Nacho Elvira 0.39 (45)
  12. Jason Scrivener 0.37 (48)

Last year, Renaissance ranked as the fifth-toughest course on tour to gain strokes putting. These are some of the slowest greens that players will see all year.

Strokes Gained: Putting — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour rankings)

  1. Taylor Montgomery 0.872 (33)
  2. Denny McCarthy 0.800 (62)
  3. Alexander Björk 0.680 (33)
  4. Billy Horschel 0.640 (49)
  5. Thomas Detry 0.626 (51)
  6. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.599 (55)
  7. Harris English 0.584 (55)
  8. Xander Schauffele 0.576 (49)
  9. Mackenzie Hughes 0.560 (57)
  10. Erik van Rooyen 0.507 (50)
  11. Andrew Putnam 0.411 (54)
  12. Wyndham Clark 0.405 (44)
  13. Brian Harman 0.404 (60)

Strokes Gained: Putting — Average Per Round (2024 DP World Tour rankings)

  1. Thorbjørn Olesen 1.42 (12)
  2. Thriston Lawrence 1.17 (50)
  3. Rasmus Højgaard 0.81 (35)
  4. Jeff Winther 0.79 (51)
  5. Calum Hill 0.68 (58)
  6. Haotong Li 0.66 (39)
  7. Marcel Siem 0.64 (34)
  8. Scott Jamieson 0.64 (53)
  9. Ryan Fox 0.59 (12)
  10. Jens Dantorp 0.58 (52)
  11. Aaron co*ckerill 0.58 (53)
  12. Rory McIlroy 0.57 (8)
  13. Connor Syme 0.57 (55)

The three-putt rate at Renaissance last year was just under 5% due to the large greens and slow speed of those greens.

Three-Putt Percentage (2024 PGA Tour rankings)

  1. Xander Schauffele 1.11%
  2. Victor Perez 1.13
  3. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 1.17
  4. Colin Morikawa 1.31
  5. Brian Harman 1.50
  6. Taylor Montgomery 1.59
  7. Mackenzie Hughes 1.69
  8. Min Woo Lee 1.69
  9. Denny McCarthy 1.82
  10. Andrew Novak 1.82
  11. Emiliano Grillo 1.85
  12. Austin Eckroat 1.92
  13. Andrew Putnam 1.92

Three Putts — Average Per Round — (2024 DP World Tour rankings)

  1. Min Woo Lee 0.00 (5)
  2. Adam Scott 0.00 (4)
  3. Tommy Fleetwood 0.13 (8)
  4. Ryan Fox 0.17 (12)
  5. Thorbjørn Olesen 0.17 (12)
  6. Jens Dantorp 0.23 (52)
  7. Aaron co*ckerill 0.25 (53)
  8. Rory McIlroy 0.25 (8)
  9. Hurly Long 0.26 (38)
  10. Pablo Larrazabal 0.28 (39)
  11. Ryo Hisatsune 0.29 (7)
  12. Jorge Campillo 0.32 (22)
  13. Scott Jamieson 0.32 (53)

Six of the par-4s at Renaissance measure between 450-500 yards.

Total Strokes Gained: Par-4s 450-500 Yards (Last 36 rounds)

  1. Rory McIlroy 32.2
  2. Ludvig Åberg 26.7
  3. Hideki Matsuyama 26.5
  4. Collin Morikawa 22.2
  5. Mark Hubbard 22.1
  6. Viktor Hovland 19.7
  7. Aaron Rai 19.3
  8. Marcel Siem 18
  9. Lucas Glover 17.7
  10. Xander Schauffele 17.6
  11. Tommy Fleetwood 17.5
  12. Tom Hoge 16.3

If the weather conditions are fairly benign, you will see low scores here and plenty of birdies can be made.

Total Birdie Or Better Gained (Last 36 rounds)

  1. Rory McIlroy 31.3
  2. Xander Schauffele 28.6
  3. Collin Morikawa 27.6
  4. Tom Kim 23.1
  5. Tom Hoge 21.9
  6. Corey Conners 21.9
  7. Keith Mitchell 21.3
  8. Ludvig Åberg 20.3
  9. Wyndham Clark 19.4
  10. Matti Schmid 19.1
  11. Justin Lower 18.4
  12. Max Greyserman 17.7

Selections

Ludvig Åberg, 16-1

Åberg is winless for 2024, but this could be his spot to get on the board.

He is ranked in the top 10 in this field for Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee.

Tommy Fleetwood, 20-1

Fleetwood lost a playoff here in 2020 to Aaron Rai and finished fourth and sixth in subsequent appearances.

He is eighth in Total Strokes Gained over the last 36 rounds.

Tom Kim, 25-1

Kim seems to be another horse for the course here, finishing third and sixth in two appearances.

He is a couple of weeks removed from falling short to his good friend Scottie Scheffler in the Travelers Championship playoff and should come in rejuvenated.

Aaron Rai, 45-1

Rai won here in 2020 in a playoff over Fleetwood. However, this tournament was still exclusively a DP World Tour event, so both Rai and Fleetwood are still seeking their first PGA Tour victories, and the Scottish Open now fits the bill.

He finished second at the Rocket Mortgage Classic two weeks ago, and then just last week finished seventh again when he was the 36-hole leader, and still in second place going into the final round of the John Deere Classic.

Thomas Detry, 60-1

Detry is another player seeking his first PGA Tour win, and this could be a good spot considering he lost in a playoff here in 2021.

He has a runner-up in Houston and top-5s at Pebble Beach and the PGA, so he is inching closer to that elusive victory.

Nicolai Højgaard, 80-1

Nicolai has been playing predominantly on the PGA Tour, and the results have been mixed.

Now the reigning DP World Tour champion is back in Europe and on a course where he finished sixth last year and he has plenty of links pedigree.

Scottish Open Best Bets and Golf Odds (2024)
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