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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Thursday, June 13
Friday, June 14
Saturday, June 15
Sunday, June 16
Monday, June 17
Tuesday, June 18
Wednesday, June 19
Thursday, June 20
Outlook for Thursday, June 13
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are most likely across southern Iowa into northern portions of Missouri and Illinois during the late afternoon to early evening. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
SPC AC 131215
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0715 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Valid 131300Z - 141200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI…SOUTHERN IOWA…AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are most likely across southern Iowa into northern portions of Missouri and Illinois during the late afternoon to early evening. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible.
Great Lakes
Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough over the Dakotas, with an associated cluster of showers and thunderstorms over eastern SD. This feature will track eastward through the day, with large scale forcing for ascent overspreading parts of southern WI/northern IL and Lower MI by early afternoon. Strong daytime heating in this area will likely result in intensification of thunderstorms along an approaching cold front, in an environment of steep low and mid level lapse rates and moderate CAPE. Activity will spread across Lake Michigan and southern Lower MI through early evening with a risk of hail and damaging winds.
Middle MS Valley
The aforementioned surface cold front will extend southwestward across southern IA and into northeast KS by mid afternoon. Strong daytime heating will yield afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s ahead of the front, along with a corridor of dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s. Forecast soundings in this zone show large MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg along with steep low and mid level lapse rates. Convective initiation along the front may be delayed until late afternoon or early evening due to warm temperatures in the 800-700mb layer, but eventually discrete supercells are expected to form along the front. Storms will track east-southeastward across the ENH risk area posing a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. Upscale organization into one or more bowing structures is also expected this evening with an increased risk of damaging winds.
Western KS to TX Panhandle
A hot and deeply mixed boundary layer will develop this afternoon from the northeast TX Panhandle into western KS, with temperatures over 100F. Most CAM solutions suggest scattered coverage of high-based thunderstorms in this region. Forecast soundings show inverted-v profiles, but also sufficient winds aloft to pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts for a few hours during the evening.
..Hart/Bentley.. 06/13/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
← back to overview
Outlook for Friday, June 14
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts, some to 80 mph, will be possible from Friday afternoon into the evening across parts of the central Plains. Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Northeast during the afternoon and early evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
SPC AC 130524
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts, some to 80 mph, will be possible from Friday afternoon into the evening across parts of the central Plains. Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Northeast during the afternoon and early evening.
Central Plains Vicinity
An upper shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley is forecast to pivot east/northeast toward the central Rockies by Friday evening. This feature will result in height falls across the central High Plains vicinity, aiding in the development of lee surface troughing across the High Plains. Meanwhile, a stalled surface front is expected to be oriented across northern KS into western NE. Southerly low-level flow along and west of the boundary will transport 60s F dewpoints northward across much of KS into eastern CO and western NE (with somewhat lower dewpoints extending into southeast MT). A strong EML will be in place across the region, and steep midlevel lapse rates atop a moistening boundary-layer will result in a corridor of moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE 1500-3000 J/kg).
Thunderstorms are likely to initially develop in upslope flow closer to higher terrain, and gradually shift east/northeast into the High Plains of northeast CO. These initial storms will pose a risk for large hail and damaging gusts given a deeply-mixed boundary-layer. With time, a low-level southwesterly jet is expected to increase toward 00z and thunderstorm clusters may organize into an east/northeast propagating bow/small MCS. This activity will pose a risk for severe gusts, with perhaps a couple significant gusts to 80 mph possible across southwest NE/northwest KS. The north and east extent of severe potential into the late evening/overnight hours should gradually diminish, especially across NE, as poor moisture return north of the surface boundary results in a stabilizing airmass. There is some potential that severe storms could persist along the stalled surface boundary into parts of eastern KS, but confidence in this scenario is too low.
Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible along the surface trough extending into parts of the northern High Plains, as well as south into portions of the OK/TX Panhandles and northeast NM.
Northeast Vicinity
An upper trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Friday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to develop east/southeast across the region during the daytime hours. Strong heating of a seasonally moist airmass will result in modest destabilization by midday. Vertical shear will be sufficient to support organized cells and clusters. Forecast soundings show a deeply mixed boundary-layer to around 850 mb and steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated severe/scattered damaging gusts will be possible with this activity. The surface cold front should mostly move offshore by 00z.
..Leitman.. 06/13/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
← back to overview
Outlook for Saturday, June 15
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across parts of the Middle Missouri Valley vicinity, as well as far northeast Montana into western/central North Dakota.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
SPC AC 130624
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY…AND FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across parts of the Middle Missouri Valley vicinity, as well as far northeast Montana into western/central North Dakota.
Mid-MO Valley
A compact upper shortwave trough over the central Plains will lift east/northeast to the upper Great Lakes on Saturday. At the surface, a stalled boundary over northeast KS into central MO is forecast to lift northward through the day. As this occurs, mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. At least a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization is forecast within the warm frontal zone. Vertically veering wind profiles, with around 45 kt effective shear magnitudes, will support organized convection/supercells. However, convective evolution is a bit uncertain and may be influenced by remnant mesoscale features from convection late in the Day 2/Friday period, or ongoing convection Saturday morning. While details remain uncertain, the overall pattern will be favorable for a corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening.
Northeast MT/North Dakota
An upper trough will develop south and east across the northern Rockies on Saturday. By 00z, enhanced west/southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the northern High Plains. As this occurs, a cold front will develop east across MT, sweeping across eastern MT and the western Dakotas during the evening and overnight hours. Ahead of the front, southeasterly low-level flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints into the region, aiding in moderate destabilization. Favorable vertical shear for organized storms will support at least an isolated risk of severe storms during the evening and early overnight period ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front.
..Leitman.. 06/13/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
← back to overview
Outlook for Sunday, June 16
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130714 SPC AC 130714
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 5/Monday – Eastern Dakotas/Minnesota
A southwesterly midlevel jet is forecast to overspread a seasonally moist/unstable environment on Monday. Large-scale ascent will remain somewhat nebulous as the more apparent synoptic upper trough remains over the northern Rockies. However, forecast guidance suggests a lead shortwave impulse may migrate through southwesterly mid/upper flow. Favorable vertical shear will support organized severe storms, though coverage and convective evolution remains uncertain.
Days 6-8/Tue-Thu
Beyond Day 5/Monday, forecast guidance generally shows an overall slower trend with eastward progress of a western upper trough. Severe potential may increase across portions of the northern/central Plains around Day 6/Tue or Day 7/Wed if the trough ejects east/northeast. If this occurs, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow would overspread a seasonally moist and unstable environment ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. This overall pattern would support some severe potential somewhere from the northern into central Plains. The GFS suite of guidance is more progressive and favors this scenario. However, the ECMWF maintains a stronger eastern upper ridge with little eastward progression of the western upper trough through mid-week. Nevertheless, a broad area of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will impinge on the northern Plains vicinity, and some severe potential seems probable, but location and timing is too uncertain to include probabilities.
..Leitman.. 06/13/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview
Outlook for Monday, June 17
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130714 SPC AC 130714
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 5/Monday – Eastern Dakotas/Minnesota
A southwesterly midlevel jet is forecast to overspread a seasonally moist/unstable environment on Monday. Large-scale ascent will remain somewhat nebulous as the more apparent synoptic upper trough remains over the northern Rockies. However, forecast guidance suggests a lead shortwave impulse may migrate through southwesterly mid/upper flow. Favorable vertical shear will support organized severe storms, though coverage and convective evolution remains uncertain.
Days 6-8/Tue-Thu
Beyond Day 5/Monday, forecast guidance generally shows an overall slower trend with eastward progress of a western upper trough. Severe potential may increase across portions of the northern/central Plains around Day 6/Tue or Day 7/Wed if the trough ejects east/northeast. If this occurs, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow would overspread a seasonally moist and unstable environment ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. This overall pattern would support some severe potential somewhere from the northern into central Plains. The GFS suite of guidance is more progressive and favors this scenario. However, the ECMWF maintains a stronger eastern upper ridge with little eastward progression of the western upper trough through mid-week. Nevertheless, a broad area of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will impinge on the northern Plains vicinity, and some severe potential seems probable, but location and timing is too uncertain to include probabilities.
..Leitman.. 06/13/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview
Outlook for Tuesday, June 18
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130714 SPC AC 130714
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 5/Monday – Eastern Dakotas/Minnesota
A southwesterly midlevel jet is forecast to overspread a seasonally moist/unstable environment on Monday. Large-scale ascent will remain somewhat nebulous as the more apparent synoptic upper trough remains over the northern Rockies. However, forecast guidance suggests a lead shortwave impulse may migrate through southwesterly mid/upper flow. Favorable vertical shear will support organized severe storms, though coverage and convective evolution remains uncertain.
Days 6-8/Tue-Thu
Beyond Day 5/Monday, forecast guidance generally shows an overall slower trend with eastward progress of a western upper trough. Severe potential may increase across portions of the northern/central Plains around Day 6/Tue or Day 7/Wed if the trough ejects east/northeast. If this occurs, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow would overspread a seasonally moist and unstable environment ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. This overall pattern would support some severe potential somewhere from the northern into central Plains. The GFS suite of guidance is more progressive and favors this scenario. However, the ECMWF maintains a stronger eastern upper ridge with little eastward progression of the western upper trough through mid-week. Nevertheless, a broad area of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will impinge on the northern Plains vicinity, and some severe potential seems probable, but location and timing is too uncertain to include probabilities.
..Leitman.. 06/13/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview
Outlook for Wednesday, June 19
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130714 SPC AC 130714
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 5/Monday – Eastern Dakotas/Minnesota
A southwesterly midlevel jet is forecast to overspread a seasonally moist/unstable environment on Monday. Large-scale ascent will remain somewhat nebulous as the more apparent synoptic upper trough remains over the northern Rockies. However, forecast guidance suggests a lead shortwave impulse may migrate through southwesterly mid/upper flow. Favorable vertical shear will support organized severe storms, though coverage and convective evolution remains uncertain.
Days 6-8/Tue-Thu
Beyond Day 5/Monday, forecast guidance generally shows an overall slower trend with eastward progress of a western upper trough. Severe potential may increase across portions of the northern/central Plains around Day 6/Tue or Day 7/Wed if the trough ejects east/northeast. If this occurs, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow would overspread a seasonally moist and unstable environment ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. This overall pattern would support some severe potential somewhere from the northern into central Plains. The GFS suite of guidance is more progressive and favors this scenario. However, the ECMWF maintains a stronger eastern upper ridge with little eastward progression of the western upper trough through mid-week. Nevertheless, a broad area of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will impinge on the northern Plains vicinity, and some severe potential seems probable, but location and timing is too uncertain to include probabilities.
..Leitman.. 06/13/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview
Outlook for Thursday, June 20
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130714 SPC AC 130714
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 5/Monday – Eastern Dakotas/Minnesota
A southwesterly midlevel jet is forecast to overspread a seasonally moist/unstable environment on Monday. Large-scale ascent will remain somewhat nebulous as the more apparent synoptic upper trough remains over the northern Rockies. However, forecast guidance suggests a lead shortwave impulse may migrate through southwesterly mid/upper flow. Favorable vertical shear will support organized severe storms, though coverage and convective evolution remains uncertain.
Days 6-8/Tue-Thu
Beyond Day 5/Monday, forecast guidance generally shows an overall slower trend with eastward progress of a western upper trough. Severe potential may increase across portions of the northern/central Plains around Day 6/Tue or Day 7/Wed if the trough ejects east/northeast. If this occurs, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow would overspread a seasonally moist and unstable environment ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. This overall pattern would support some severe potential somewhere from the northern into central Plains. The GFS suite of guidance is more progressive and favors this scenario. However, the ECMWF maintains a stronger eastern upper ridge with little eastward progression of the western upper trough through mid-week. Nevertheless, a broad area of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will impinge on the northern Plains vicinity, and some severe potential seems probable, but location and timing is too uncertain to include probabilities.
..Leitman.. 06/13/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, June 13
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Friday, June 14
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, June 15
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, June 16
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Monday, June 17
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Tuesday, June 18
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Wednesday, June 19
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Thursday, June 20
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
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